How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.