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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.